Final Report

Final Report from Skywalker:
As of 12/9/2011, CROX closed @ 16.03 and we own 600 shares (bought @ 25)
CROX value is $9618 and cash in this account is $2424 =
Balance in the account of $12,042
Profit $2,042 is a profit of 20.4% since January 2011.
Our plan is to continue holding the shares of this fundamentally strong company with good potential for growth.
Technically, the long-term charts show the price to have hit support around this area with forecast to rise above its 52-week high of 32.47.

Message From YODA: 

It has been disappointing not to see CROX stock recover from slightly missing their guidance in the 3^rd quarter of 2011. It would appear that almost any company (and investor) would be ecstatic seeing increasing sales and profit of 28%. Perhaps many investors and analysts are still of the opinion Crocs is still a one style clog that is a fad slowly disappearing.  Actually, I don't feel Crocs is even a shoe company…….but rather a “comfort company” providing the ultimate foot massage while strolling along the streets or standing.   

 

Crocs have a strong global play, with an excellent balance sheet, no debt and an experience management team executing aggressively to a guidance of 30 – 31% growth. In 2011 sales will be close to a billion $’s and EPS of approximately $1.25.

 

Yoda….the “Croxaholic”

Position Update

On Nov 1 we sold 6 contracts Nov 20 calls @ .40.
Nov 8, CROX @ 17.40, filled my exit order Buy to Close @ .05 cents
(Think or Swim does not charge commission to close for .05 cents or less.)
This closes my covered call position with profit of .35 x 6 contracts = $210.
Our cash balance is now $2424 and we still own 600 shares of CROX
bought @ 25.   On the next rally, we will look to sell calls again to generate
additional income. 

Sold November Covered Calls

On Nov 1, CROX @ 18.22
Sold 6 contracts Nov 20 calls @ .40 = collect $240 credit
CROX has been weak and I do not think it will rise above 20 by
expiration on Nov 19.  If it stays below 20, I keep the $240. 
If it rises above 20, I will adjust the position by rolling to higher strike price
for December calls. 
If the price falls further, it might hit my exit order I placed an order to buy to close at .05 cents GTC (good till canceled) because if CROX price falls further,
this will close me out of the trade with .35 cents profit x 6 = $210.  

CROX update

We were assigned 600 shares of CROX at the price of 25 = $15,000. 
We keep the $540 credit from selling the 6 contracts Oct 25 put @ .90 and our cash balance is $2214.
We own 600 shares of CROX, which closed today @ 17.01 = $10,206, suffering loss of $4794.
Our account total today is $12,420, up $2420, which is +24% since Jan 1, 2011. 
Earnings announcement is on Oct 27, Wednesday, after market close. 
We might purchase more shares and/or sell covered calls on our 600 shares. 

CROX down 36% in after hours trading

Crocs, Inc.

(NasdaqGS: CROX )

After Hours: 17.11 -9.53 (-35.77%) 6:09PM EDT

Crocs, Inc. Revises Third Quarter 2011 Revenue and Earnings Guidance
Crocs, Inc. (CROX) today revised its revenue and earnings guidance for the third quarter ended September 30, 2011.
For the third quarter of 2011, the Company now expects revenue to be in the range of $273.0 to $275.0 million, an increase of approximately 27% over the $215.6 million of revenue reported in the third quarter last year. This compares to the Company’s previous guidance for third quarter 2011 revenue of $280.0 million. For the third quarter 2011, the Company now expects diluted earnings per share to be between $0.31 and $0.33 compared to its previous guidance of diluted earnings per share of $0.40.


CROX

Earnings Whisper ®:	N/A
Consensus Estimate:	$0.40
Surprise Expectation 1:
Release Date: [confirmed]	10/27/2011
After Close

From Yoda: 
I must say I'm surprised with Crocs 3rd quarter earnings and sales coming in at over 25% most probably, that the sell off is so great. It certainly has not dampen my enthusiasm. ...... plan to purchase more on the 27th depending on investors reaction.

From Skywalker:

Will monitor the price and adjust the naked puts position this week before expiration Friday. 
On Sept 27, sold 6 contracts CROX Oct 25 put @ .90 for credit $540

Sold October Naked Puts

On 9/27/11, CROX was @ 27.55 and I sold 6 naked puts.
Oct 25put @ .90 x 6 to collect total of $540 credit. 
If CROX price drops below 25 on Oct 21, I want to buy 600 shares of CROX
at the price of 25 will cost $15,000 and I would keep the $540 premium collected.
If CROX price stays above 25 on Oct 21, I will keep the $540 premium collected and
watch for a retracement down good entry to purchase shares. 

Naked Puts trade finished with profit

September expiration 9/16/11, CROX closed @ 28.28.
I keep the $420 premium collected from my naked puts trade
in which I sold 7 contracts of the Sep 23 calls @ .60 on Aug 18.
From my Aug 18 CROX chart technical analysis, the price did drop close to my target
of 23 drawn in bold red line.
The lowest price since Aug 18 was 23.12.
Our account balance is cash $16,674, up +66.7% since Jan 1.
Currently, CROX daily price chart is forming a triangle, which is ambiguous. 

Sold Naked Puts

On 8/17/2011, CROX was @ 27.3 and I sold 7 naked puts.
Sept 23p @ .60 x 7 to collect total of $420 credit.
If CROX price drops below 23, I want to buy 700 shares of CROX
at the price of 23 will cost $16,100 and I would keep the $420 premium collected.  
If CROX price stays above 23 by Sept 17, I will not purchase 700 shares
but I will keep the $420 premium collected.

Technical analysis conclusion:  CROX price will drop further to about 21 before going higher than its resistance of 30.
1) Bearish head and shoulders is labeled in the chart above of CROX one hour chart.
2) Lower highs and lower lows is a downtrend.
3) Price broke below the purple trendline.
4) Fibonacci pull shows retracement rally to 2/3 at price 29 is setup for a downward Wave 3.
5) When all 3 moving averages came together today, it is a sign of a bursting price move in either direction.

If the price move is down, I want to buy shares and keep the premium from selling the puts.
If the price move is up, I will keep the premium from selling the puts and watch for a retracement down to buy more shares. 

Exit trade with +62% profit.

Dwight said, "You don't go broke taking a profit."

On 8/5/11, CROX hit our trailing stop and we exited this trade of all #602 shares @ 27 for a +62% profit of $6,254 in 7 months.  We are in cash $16,254 and watching for a re-entry setup. 

Yoda's evaluation of our CROX trade:
excellent profit and it is nice to have money "in the bank!"

Adjusted Trading Plan July 29, 2011

Above chart of CROX is a one hour chart.
As of closing 7/29/11, our position is in profit $8,861, which is +88% since entry on Jan. 13, 2011.
At the opening on 7/28, CROX gapped up +8% due to a fantastic earnings reports announcement on 7/27.  This triggered our price @30 alert to send a text to my cellphone to analyze the position to possibly take partial profits.  We decided to stay long all #602 shares

Yoda said: 

An almost unbelievable day. Only recently I was reading about companies that exceed earning expectations and if their share price increases the day following the announcement, it is a good omen for above price appreciation the next six months.  Based on Crocs resilience to  the troubled stock market condition, I believe today's strength is even more significant.

Technical analysis:  A gap up and run is very strong bullish sign, especially on 2 days that SPY was down.  CROX has broken through resistance at 28, and old resistance becomes new support.
1)  For 602 shares, tighten stop loss from 24.70 and 26 to 27 to lock in profits +62%.  Price of 27 is the new previous swing low is shown in red and at the 200 day moving average shown in yellow. 
Price of 27 is below the new support line of 28 to give it some room to wiggle because the market makers might fill all the orders for stop losses at the obvious price of 28 and then take off upwards without them.  Steve Nison, the candlestick master, calls this "crack and snap"  -- prices goes a crack below support and then snaps back up way above support.
2)  My near-term target price is now at the price range of 37 to 40, shown in green, which is the 224% and 261% of the Fibonacci pull of the previous major upswing.  I set a new alert at 37 using ThinkorSwim platform.  The triggered alert immediately sends a text message to my cellphone to analyze the position to possibly take partial profit.

CROX up over 9% in after hours trading 7/27/11

Yoda's highlights of CROX earnings report:

I just finished listening to the Crocs 2nd Qt. earnings conference call. Just as last qt., I don't see anything blocking a very bright future for Crocs. Wow.....Asia is rocking - you could say the same for all International markets!  I'm now eager to see a Crocs store in Russia this October......Russia was mentioned twice as an excellent new market.

Skywalker on the calculator:

Wow!!! after hours trading CROX @ 29.20 +2.44 points is +9.12%

For our 602 shares that is profit of $1,468.88 for after hours trading and

total profit of $7,579.18 since entry on Jan 13 is +75.7% on this trade.

Adjusted Trading Plan July 24, 2011

Above chart of CROX is a one hour chart.
As of closing 7/24/11, our position is in profit $7,001.26, which is +70% since entry on January 13, 2011. 
Analysis assists to make decisions to adjust the trading plan.
Technical analysis:  CROX made a double top, which is resistance, and it may pullback.
Fundamental analysis:   CROX reports earnings on 7/27.  Calculations on the 5 previous earnings reports show that CROX averages a 6.8% move up and down the day following the announcement.   Also, on 8/2/11 is the deadline for the Federal debt ceiling problem. 
Adjustments:
1)  For 302 shares, tighten stop loss from 21 to 26 to lock in profits +56%.  Price of 26 is the new previous low swing is shown in red and at the 200 day moving average shown in yellow.
2)  For the remaining 300 shares, tighten stop loss from 21 to 24.70 to lock in profits +48%.  Price of 24.70 is greater than the possible earnings gap of 6.8% and at the Fibonacci 50% retracement line of the previous major upswing as shown in blue. I hope to remain long at least these 300 shares to catch further rally beyond the double top.
3)  My near-term target price remains at the price range between 30 to 33, shown in green, which is the 127% of the Fibonacci pull of the previous major upswing.  I set an alert at 30 using ThinkorSwim platform, the triggered alert is an immediate text message to my cellphone.

Crocs store in New York

HSOG member, Lloyd's eight-year-old granddaughter, Sarina, showing off her new Crocs purchased in a busy NYC store.

Crocs in Singapore

HSOG Member, Nathan Higashida, observed the Crocs store in Singapore was very busy selling shoes.

CROX Earnings Report 7/27/11 after market

CROX Earnings Report 7/27/11 after market

Adjusted Trading Plan July 16, 2011

Chart of CROX is an hourly chart.  Technical analysis assists to make decisions to adjust the trading plan:
1)  Tighten stop loss from 19 to 21 to lock in profits of 26%.  21 is the price of the new previous low swing.
2)  Fibonacci analysis assists to select a near-term target price range between 30 to 33 as the next resistance area to decide to stay long or take profit.  This is if price can break through the previous high of 28.42. 
3)  Set a caution ALERT at 24.8 to analyze the trade to consider selling partial shares for 49% profit.  Technically this price 24.8 is hitting support of the 200 day moving average shown in yellow, and getting closer to the trendline shown in purple, and at the 50% retracement line of the Fibonacci pull shown in light green.  (Using ThinkorSwim platform, the triggered ALERT immediately sends a text message to my cellphone.)

HSOG Member at Crocs store in Canada

Let's start a fun collection of photos of HSOG members in front of Crocs stores around the world ! 
Just email them to Lloyd and they will be posted on this blog about CROX.
This photo is HSOG member, Kathy Dinman, with her daughter, Heather, in Whistler, British Columbia in Canada !

Message from Yoda on May 12, 2011

If I am Skywalker, then Lloyd is Yoda.  He sent me the following information and we decided to remain long 602 shares of CROX.  Our stop loss was raised from 16 to 19 to lock in profits, and 19 is the new previous low.  Crocs introduced a new line of shoes that changes colors in the sun!

j

 

Technical Analaysis Using Dwight's Checklist on 4/8/2011

 

Momentum approach has 5 YES and 2 No
Conclusion:  Price of Crocs is in an upward direction.  We remain long 602 shares of CROX.

Market-Timing approach has 0 YES and 3 NO
Conclusion:  CROX may be overbought.  We tighten our stop loss from 15 to 16, which is the previous low (see the chart below).

Daily chart of CROX on 4/8/2011.  Technical analysis drawings assist to make adjustment decisions:
1)  select a new stop loss price from 15 to 16, which is the new previous low swing.
2)  Fibonacci analysis assists to select a near-term target price range between 20.84 to 22.39 as the next resistance area to decide to stay long or take profit.  This is if price can break through the previous high of 19.61.

Fundamental Analysis Using Dwight's Checklist on 2/25/2011

10 YES and 5 NO
Conclusion:  Crocs is a fundamentally strong company and we remain long 602 shares of CROX.

Initial Entry Jan 13, 2011 and progress every 2 months

January 13,2011:  Bought 602 shares of CROX @ 16.61 = $9,999.22
March 11, 2011:  602 shares of CROX @ 18.44 = $11,100   +11%
May 13, 2011:  602 shares of CROX @ 22.195 = $13,361.39  +33%
July 8.2011:  602 shares of CROX @ 27.47 = $16,536.94  +65%

 Daily chart of CROX on 2/11/2011.  Technical analysis drawings show clear uptrend:
* higher highs and higher lows
* price remains above the 200 day moving average shown in yellow
* price remains above the trendline shown in purple
* the upswings are greater than the downswings (also called retracements)

Skywalker Wears Crocs

Welcome Skywalker

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