Adjusted Trading Plan July 29, 2011

Above chart of CROX is a one hour chart.
As of closing 7/29/11, our position is in profit $8,861, which is +88% since entry on Jan. 13, 2011.
At the opening on 7/28, CROX gapped up +8% due to a fantastic earnings reports announcement on 7/27.  This triggered our price @30 alert to send a text to my cellphone to analyze the position to possibly take partial profits.  We decided to stay long all #602 shares

Yoda said: 

An almost unbelievable day. Only recently I was reading about companies that exceed earning expectations and if their share price increases the day following the announcement, it is a good omen for above price appreciation the next six months.  Based on Crocs resilience to  the troubled stock market condition, I believe today's strength is even more significant.

Technical analysis:  A gap up and run is very strong bullish sign, especially on 2 days that SPY was down.  CROX has broken through resistance at 28, and old resistance becomes new support.
1)  For 602 shares, tighten stop loss from 24.70 and 26 to 27 to lock in profits +62%.  Price of 27 is the new previous swing low is shown in red and at the 200 day moving average shown in yellow. 
Price of 27 is below the new support line of 28 to give it some room to wiggle because the market makers might fill all the orders for stop losses at the obvious price of 28 and then take off upwards without them.  Steve Nison, the candlestick master, calls this "crack and snap"  -- prices goes a crack below support and then snaps back up way above support.
2)  My near-term target price is now at the price range of 37 to 40, shown in green, which is the 224% and 261% of the Fibonacci pull of the previous major upswing.  I set a new alert at 37 using ThinkorSwim platform.  The triggered alert immediately sends a text message to my cellphone to analyze the position to possibly take partial profit.

CROX up over 9% in after hours trading 7/27/11

Yoda's highlights of CROX earnings report:

I just finished listening to the Crocs 2nd Qt. earnings conference call. Just as last qt., I don't see anything blocking a very bright future for Crocs. Wow.....Asia is rocking - you could say the same for all International markets!  I'm now eager to see a Crocs store in Russia this October......Russia was mentioned twice as an excellent new market.

Skywalker on the calculator:

Wow!!! after hours trading CROX @ 29.20 +2.44 points is +9.12%

For our 602 shares that is profit of $1,468.88 for after hours trading and

total profit of $7,579.18 since entry on Jan 13 is +75.7% on this trade.

Adjusted Trading Plan July 24, 2011

Above chart of CROX is a one hour chart.
As of closing 7/24/11, our position is in profit $7,001.26, which is +70% since entry on January 13, 2011. 
Analysis assists to make decisions to adjust the trading plan.
Technical analysis:  CROX made a double top, which is resistance, and it may pullback.
Fundamental analysis:   CROX reports earnings on 7/27.  Calculations on the 5 previous earnings reports show that CROX averages a 6.8% move up and down the day following the announcement.   Also, on 8/2/11 is the deadline for the Federal debt ceiling problem. 
Adjustments:
1)  For 302 shares, tighten stop loss from 21 to 26 to lock in profits +56%.  Price of 26 is the new previous low swing is shown in red and at the 200 day moving average shown in yellow.
2)  For the remaining 300 shares, tighten stop loss from 21 to 24.70 to lock in profits +48%.  Price of 24.70 is greater than the possible earnings gap of 6.8% and at the Fibonacci 50% retracement line of the previous major upswing as shown in blue. I hope to remain long at least these 300 shares to catch further rally beyond the double top.
3)  My near-term target price remains at the price range between 30 to 33, shown in green, which is the 127% of the Fibonacci pull of the previous major upswing.  I set an alert at 30 using ThinkorSwim platform, the triggered alert is an immediate text message to my cellphone.

Crocs store in New York

HSOG member, Lloyd's eight-year-old granddaughter, Sarina, showing off her new Crocs purchased in a busy NYC store.

Crocs in Singapore

HSOG Member, Nathan Higashida, observed the Crocs store in Singapore was very busy selling shoes.

CROX Earnings Report 7/27/11 after market

CROX Earnings Report 7/27/11 after market

Adjusted Trading Plan July 16, 2011

Chart of CROX is an hourly chart.  Technical analysis assists to make decisions to adjust the trading plan:
1)  Tighten stop loss from 19 to 21 to lock in profits of 26%.  21 is the price of the new previous low swing.
2)  Fibonacci analysis assists to select a near-term target price range between 30 to 33 as the next resistance area to decide to stay long or take profit.  This is if price can break through the previous high of 28.42. 
3)  Set a caution ALERT at 24.8 to analyze the trade to consider selling partial shares for 49% profit.  Technically this price 24.8 is hitting support of the 200 day moving average shown in yellow, and getting closer to the trendline shown in purple, and at the 50% retracement line of the Fibonacci pull shown in light green.  (Using ThinkorSwim platform, the triggered ALERT immediately sends a text message to my cellphone.)

HSOG Member at Crocs store in Canada

Let's start a fun collection of photos of HSOG members in front of Crocs stores around the world ! 
Just email them to Lloyd and they will be posted on this blog about CROX.
This photo is HSOG member, Kathy Dinman, with her daughter, Heather, in Whistler, British Columbia in Canada !

Message from Yoda on May 12, 2011

If I am Skywalker, then Lloyd is Yoda.  He sent me the following information and we decided to remain long 602 shares of CROX.  Our stop loss was raised from 16 to 19 to lock in profits, and 19 is the new previous low.  Crocs introduced a new line of shoes that changes colors in the sun!

j

 

Technical Analaysis Using Dwight's Checklist on 4/8/2011

 

Momentum approach has 5 YES and 2 No
Conclusion:  Price of Crocs is in an upward direction.  We remain long 602 shares of CROX.

Market-Timing approach has 0 YES and 3 NO
Conclusion:  CROX may be overbought.  We tighten our stop loss from 15 to 16, which is the previous low (see the chart below).

Daily chart of CROX on 4/8/2011.  Technical analysis drawings assist to make adjustment decisions:
1)  select a new stop loss price from 15 to 16, which is the new previous low swing.
2)  Fibonacci analysis assists to select a near-term target price range between 20.84 to 22.39 as the next resistance area to decide to stay long or take profit.  This is if price can break through the previous high of 19.61.

Fundamental Analysis Using Dwight's Checklist on 2/25/2011

10 YES and 5 NO
Conclusion:  Crocs is a fundamentally strong company and we remain long 602 shares of CROX.

Initial Entry Jan 13, 2011 and progress every 2 months

January 13,2011:  Bought 602 shares of CROX @ 16.61 = $9,999.22
March 11, 2011:  602 shares of CROX @ 18.44 = $11,100   +11%
May 13, 2011:  602 shares of CROX @ 22.195 = $13,361.39  +33%
July 8.2011:  602 shares of CROX @ 27.47 = $16,536.94  +65%

 Daily chart of CROX on 2/11/2011.  Technical analysis drawings show clear uptrend:
* higher highs and higher lows
* price remains above the 200 day moving average shown in yellow
* price remains above the trendline shown in purple
* the upswings are greater than the downswings (also called retracements)

Skywalker Wears Crocs

Welcome Skywalker

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